Yesterday’s Iowa Caucus results:
Mitt Romney: 24.6% – 30,015
Rick Santorum: 24.5% – 30,008
Ron Paul: 21.4% – 26,219
As you can see above, our Iowa Caucus predictions were not particularly good. My faith in the powers of same day registration and a passionate following proved unfounded as Ron Paul finished third.
Ross at least guessed a Rick Santorum second place finish, but failed to foresee a Mitt Romney victory in the caucuses, let alone one over Santorum.
Also of note, Michele Bachmann suspended her campaign today, and the status of Rick Perry candidacy is unknown after a recent tweet suggesting he was going to continue on in the race.
– Chip Lebovitz
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The Talk: Minnesota Vice
August 12, 2011
Ross Freiman-Mendel: Iowa State University was home to the third Republican debate last night. Chip, what struck you the most about last night’s proceedings?
Chip Lebovitz: How much the candidates value a good performance at the Ames Straw Poll this Saturday. Middling candidates like Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum had two credible options in the debate to increase their stature — attack Mitt Romney the front runner or attack Michele Bachmann the straw poll leader (Romney is not actively taking part in the straw poll). All the candidates piled onto Bachmann, signifying that they think an Ames victory Saturday is more important then making up ground in the national polls.
Ross Freiman-Mendel: I think that’s a slight oversimplification, but true none the less. The debate last night was politics as performance at its best — Pawlenty played the rich card against Romney and Gingrich cleverly rebuked the Fox panel on more than one occasion. I thought Bachmann’s performance was underwhelming, and at points she seemed an empty metallic grey suit.
Posted in The Talk
Tagged ChrossTalk, Fox News, herman cain, Michele Bachmann, Minnesota Nice, Mitt Romney, Republican Presidential Debate, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty
The Republican presidential nomination fight heads into its first real event this weekend with the Ames Straw Poll. Although not an actual primary, Ames has a winnowing effect on the Republican field. The straw poll results ended the campaigns of now Kansas Governor Sam Brownback in 2007 and Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander in 1999. Pictured above is supporters from the campaign of 2007 Straw Poll winner Mitt Romney.
ChrossTalk breaks down the straw poll with our predictions of the first and second place finishers. We’ll try to expand this list throughout the day to get more perspectives for you to peruse.
Jeremy Lerman: With respect to its ability to predict campaign success, the Ames Straw Poll shouldn’t be ignored. Of the five Ames polls that have been held, three of the five winners went on to win the Iowa Caucuses. Two of those three later captured the Republican nomination. I can’t help but be both troubled and amused by the idea that Michele Bachmann could mispronounce “chutzpah” – an egregious offense to even the most casual employer of Yiddish diction – and still be considered a serious contender for the Republican nomination. Luckily for her, Boca Raton is not the bellwether for the Christian conservative base.
Bachmann is the frontrunner. Given Romney’s calculated decision not to pour money into Iowa, Bachmann’s formiddable contender is Ron Paul. Both Paul and Bachmann are associated with the Tea Party. Make no mistake, these are two very different candidates. When Paul advocates for small government, he walks the walk. We’re talking about a guy who refuses to participate in the lucrative congressional pension and healthcare plans because they are “immoral.” Bachmann espouses smaller government while simultaneously wearing her evangelical politics on her sleeve. While the contradiction is clear to many, it will play well for her in Iowa. The evangelical base likes lower taxes and fewer regulations – as long as they are promised that the administration will use the power of the federal government to ban abortions, prevent gay marriage and censor heterodoxical speech. While Paul is well funded and incredibly well organized, Bachmann’s broader appeal and superior ability to garner media attention gives her the slight edge over Paul at this point.”